How soon could Jenson Button win the World Drivers’ Championship this year? It could be in as little as five races time…
Everyone’s asking the question today – it’s the talk of our office – so I contracted my brother in to do some maths (he’s much better with numbers), and this is what we came up with…
You’ll need to sit down though, ‘cos this gets a bit complicated.
It’s obviously hard to calculate as there are many variables involved with who might finish where, so let’s talk through a few likely scenarios.
First, we’ll discount Jenson’s teammate Rubens Barrichello. Not because he doesn’t have a chance, but because Ross Brawn surely won’t let him challenge Jenson now.
So you have to look at Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel to be the main title rival.
If Jenson won every race from here on in, and Vettel came second, then the former would have the Championship wrapped up after winning the 13th race of the year, the Italian Grand Prix. He’d be 44 points clear of Vettel with four races to go.
If Vettel won every race and Jenson came in second at all of them, then the title wouldn’t be Jenson’s until after Brazil, with only the new Abu Dhabi GP left.
Although saying that, if Vettel won every remaining race then Button needs only five 3rds, and seven 2nds to take the title.
That in itself must be pretty comforting to the Brit, if he’s even thinking about the title yet.
But probably the best thing to do at this stage is to look at average points hauls from the year so far.
If you normalise Malaysia – discounting that it was shortened and look at it being worth full points – then Button has taken 9.43 points per race, whereas Sebastian has only taken 4.14.
If they continue at that rate for the next five races, then the title is Jenson’s after the Belgian GP, 12 races into the season.
Even if you discount Vettel’s first two races of the year – where he finished out of the points in 13th and 15th places – and if you knock out his DNF at Monaco, assuming he’ll find consistency and continue on his average points scoring for the rest of the year, then Button will take the title after the Italian GP.
Exactly the same as if he wins everything and Vettel comes second.
And if you include Barrichello in the averages – averaging five points a race – then Button still wins the WDC after Belgium.
Yet if Button keeps winning and no single, consistent challenger steps up, then he’ll have it even sooner than that.
At this stage of the game, you’d be somewhat foolish to bet against Button being World Drivers’ Champion in 2009.
Amusingly, if Bernie Ecclestone had gotten his way and the gold medal system had replaced the normal points scoring, then Jenson would be World Champ in three more wins’ time.
Which could’ve meant the season would have been over before August!
Jenson needs to just keep the racing spirit running as it is!!!!
As long as he is scoring points in every race now, YEAH Button to be CHAMP!!!
How much do you wish you’d put a tenner on Button for the championship in December?
I was so glad after 2 races, but I wanted the big guys to rebound so it would get interesting. Now, I can only hope the white cars breakdown somehow, sometime, and we have a race with the rest.
Congrats to the team and driver. Excelent performance, not their fault that nobody else figured out the rules.
*excellent.
All this just makes me more depressed by the fact F1 really is down to the car, and not the driver.
Its all about the car AND the driver
Barrachello has the same car is jenson
and hasnt won a race!
Hamilton this year…undoubtably one of
the best drivers in the paddock and is struggling keep up with the force india’s for pete’s sake!
true button has an amazingly capable car, but its
his driving style and ability that has dominated
this years racing.
Let’s just say that the fat lady is warming up her voice.
GO VETTEL, even though I know Button will now win! But next year Brawn wont have what they had to develop the car (i.e £400 million) so next year I believe we will have a new new order!
I think Martin Brundle got it right when he called Brawn GP “A Freak Team”, in that they’re not really a new team, they’ve actually got £40m of Honda R&D as well (Understandably, Honda gave up on 2008 about half way through and concentrated on 2009. A lot.).
So whilst Jensen Button is undeniably a great driver, the car is a big factor – whilst Rubens hasn’t won yet, he has out-lap-timed JB a few times. And whilst it’d be great for Button to (deservedly) win the WDC & for Brawn to be champions in their first year, I want at least one team to keep them in check and beat him a few times. It’s getting a little boring.
6 out of 7 races! Win at Silverstone and then back off slightly please Jenson…
*£400m
I wonder if that car would be as good if it stayed as a Honda? Surely most of it is Honda’s work – suspension, aerodynamics, etc. – so how much difference would a Honda engine have made…
I put £10 on Button winning in 2009 half way through the 2008 season. William Hill gave me odds of 97/5. So I bet a hard earned 50. Looks like i’ll be kissing £970 really soon!!!!
It’s good to see Jenson winning after all the years he spent in a bad car, but it’s even better to see the ‘magestic’ Hamilton at the back, if he were anything special he’d drag the McLaren into the top ten, like what Fernando does with the Renualt. I never liked Hamilton because he went right into a winning team; he apparently had the talent to be there, it’s evident now that he doesn’t.
If I recall, when they were running under the Honda engine, they had the slowest top speed on the grid. They had better aero and suspesion, and everything else than say, Torro Rosso or Force India, but in just sheer speed, that Honda engine was a pig
with the Merc engine, all of Honda’s good design and Ross Brawns enfluence as well can clearly be seen
2004 anyone?
What you said about Barrichello being blocked from challenging Button, he stated that if this happened, he would leave immediately. I’m not sure if Brawn is willing to risk it.
I may be bored with the title race already, but watching Hamilton fall around a lot. If he really is any good, he will do to McLaren what Fernando did to Renault, and work on improving the car.
Great blog.
In my opinion, screw the championchip, aim for schumachers (Typo, don’t know how to spell that) point record! Would be awesome if button would not only get the championchip, but also get the most points ever!
if button
keeps winning like
this he might threaten
m.schumacher’s record
of 13 wins in a sason.
ps great blog
britania all the way!
this is a very good comment……
R8- Best Diesel Ever said…
2009 at 3:57 pm
GO VETTEL, even though I know Button will now win! But next year Brawn wont have what they had to develop the car (i.e £400 million) so next year I believe we will have a new new order!
It’s at least 90% about the car. Sad but true.
Remaining 5% – 10% still justifies the top drivers salaries though, considering the teams budgets.
And let’s not forget that large part of most driver’s salary is not for their driving skills but their marketing value. Which makes me wonder is Kimi really THAT good a driver…
Go on Button!
it has a lot more to do with the drivers skill then some of you guys think. one of the main reasons why Jensen is able to dominate every race is in his skill to conserve fuel where he can and look after tires where he can, while keeping a competitive race pace, which is what helps him put the hammer down when needed and widen the gap before pit stops.
Barichello has the SAME car as button, but he lacks buttons skill to finesse the car which is why he’s always finishing where he is.
also if the car had the Honda engine, they would also be using a KERS system, and the car would have improved balance. plus Honda would of been allowed to work on the engine this year, so the net gain of the cars performance would most likely be positive compared to the McLaren engine.
also.. if the FIA gets what they want, then everyone car next year would be developed with about $45million.. im and pretty dam sure Brawn GP can afford that.
i agree
musicmanvin,
two drivers of the same team never have the same or “equal” car. Any car suits the other driver better than the other.
Michael Schumacher’s team mates for example always had to do what they can with a car that was developed for Michael by Michael (and his minions).
Also, if my aunt had balls, she would be my uncle.
all you hamilton-bashers presumedly are actually topgear fans, because if you remember correctly when he was in teh reasonably priced car he came within 0.1 of a second of nigel mansells time on a wet and oily track…are you really suggesting this is no mean feat.?
also i think i’d put up with one more boring season just so button cud win this season he deserves at least 1 title
Button had spent so much time in midfield pass few years he had to develop skills to siply finish so many races. He was always smoooooooth, but he gained expirience and thicker racing skin.
Vettel got hot headed at minimal preasure as he did in Australia. He made it even easier for Button who drove superbly and was always going to win.
Comeing back to main topic. It is all Jensons to loose. But you all know that it can get tricky at any time.
His tyre can pop on Barichelos bodywork shreds or he can have spin on gravel fom Piqet’s latest off.
I reckon he will have it in a bag when his points tall will reach 100 with similar to present advantage over nr 2.
We will have a back 2 back british champion since the 1960s.
All jensons got to do is do 1 race at a time.
It would be nice if he won the championship under the lights in singapore. (its a night race)
I hope Jenson wins every remaining race. No, not because I’m a fan, but for 3 other reasons.
1) It’ll shoot Bernie’s medals theory squarely in the face where it belongs as Bernie has been quick to point out how the championship would have not been decided before the final race in the last two years. Having it over after just 10 races will shut that stupid old fart up.
2) He’ll take Schumacher’s “most race wins” in a season.
3) He’ll take the cheaters “most points in a season” record too.
And yes, the Brawn is a good car, but look how useless Rubens has been. He’s really fulfilling the Patrese role from 1992. Patrese only really had the measure of Mansell in a couple of races. So far Rubens has had it at one, and only then sort of.
The Brawn is an amazing car and, and apparently Jenson really is a top class driver. Watching him drive is just a thing of beauty. I still think Alonso is the best driver in F1, but Button is clearly no slouch.
And while Jenson wins every remaining race, I’m loving seeing Ferrari and McLaren suffer. Nice to see Lewis finally paying his dues.
Though I’m going with Webber to actually win Silverstone. Came to me in a dream.
OldFart
actually, both drivers have their own little team within the team. it’s kinda like a couple of mechanics dedicated to that drivers vehicle, however they are able to set up their car differently from each other.
a few races ago when Button was having problems finding balance with his car, so his side of the garage used data gathered from Rubens car to help fix Buttons balance issues overnight.
i really hope bernie realizes that jenson would have won the championship by now if the championship was decided by his medal system….
maybe we should change the ‘Lewis’ section into the ‘Jenson’ section? GO BRAWN!
lewis? lewis who?
You have to begrudgingly congratulate Brawn and Button, because its jsut a matter of amassing the required points now. They’ve been almost flawless.
On the other hand, no matter how flawless their performance is they are only winning because of Honda’s 400 million Euro’s that went on developing the car, and the fact that they started on the car more than likely before the start of the 08 season.
Again, I give props to Brawn and Button, Button more than Brawn because some of Brawn’s strategies for Barrichello have hurt him very badly (if they’d gotten it right we might have a scrap on our hands). My only concern is that you just know that if Honda had pulled out a year before (or theres a big rule change again) this Brawn car would be nowhere.
Yet another season where the car counts for 80%, and the driver 20%.
Lets think back to when Formula 1 was not ‘boring’…Lewis/Alonso driving the same car…Senna/Prost driving the same car…
The key for a great season is to level the playing field so that we can have some real racing, and the real racing drivers can be deserved champions.
Consider all the drivers who could be first in the championship this year if they had Button’s car: Vettel? Hamilton? Massa? Raikonnen? Kubica?
What about all the drivers who could have been champions last year if they had Hamilton’s car?
And yes, I’m going to go there – what about all the drivers who could have been champions if they had Schumaher’s car?
I’m getting tired of good drivers in good cars overtaking good drivers in worse cars, and being hailed as driving prodigies.
No wonder the major manufacturers are so uptight about the budget cap – they know full well that success in F1 is actually much more dependant on how good the car is, then how good the driver is. If any of them genuinely thought that their drivers were way better than any other drivers on the grid – why would they mind more standardised cars??!
lol haha i agree but button has not won that many races through his Forumla 1 career and the designer for Ferrari went off and designed the car that Button is using now the same Mercedez engine as the car Lewis is driving but it has a better overall aero dynamic package installed and its lighter thats what i think i watch the F1 when i can to be honest its just about the ”Money” thats what I think.
Who cares if it was Honda’s 400 million? Have you forgotten last year’s car was abysmal? How much have Toyota, BMW and Renault spent? Most years there is one car which dominates and of course it plays a huge part in the driver’s championship. Mansell and Hill arguably wouldn’t have been world champions without their dominant Williams and of course Schumacher had the superior Ferrari to thank for some of his wins, among others.
Jensen is driving the wheels off the car, same as he did last year and every year. Now it’s his turn to enjoy the best on the grid. If you think it’s boring why are you watching? Apparently NASCAR is more exciting although I fell asleep Sunday night. There are plenty other championships to watch. Find one you like, come back when your team/driver is dominating and tell me it’s boring.
Brawn cars have been develop using Honda’s money. We all know that Ross Brawn is a genius in developing F1 cars but do you think that He can develop the car with a limited amount of money, lets say 10 million? i don’t think so! and don’t forget Brawn develop the car in Brackley where Honda have invested the latest equipments.
hamilton
2008 jenson who, 2009 lewis who, 2010 ?????
26 points needed! 10 races left! it in the bag. go get it button.
i think that jenson buttons car has absoloutely wrecked the 2009 season. he is winning all the races and that is good and we are happy for him but this means no one else has got the chance to win. he is quite obviously going to win the season.
I like the comment 16.
Button, good for him, he helped to develop a car that suits him 100%. That’s why he’s so much better than Rubinho.
Hamilton was before his biggest challenge, to develop a brand new car, custom made for him. And he failed. At least this year. Tunning an F1 car is extremelly difficult. I’m sure he can learn. But it is at least 70% of the performance. Right now, Brawn as a team delivered the perfect car for Button.
That is simply the reason why Rubinho will not challenge JB at all. Maybe he will win one race, not more than two.
hmmm, yes, jensen is doing well, simply beacuse he uses an old fashioned drivers style (one sweep in, one sweep out, like jim clark) these cars are light at the back, tail happy lil swines, likle a formula one car should be, well, not quite, still no h-shift manual, mebbe next year, that means he is balenced and keeps the car stable, all the “twitching” of the other drivers trips the car up, and well, barrichellos big spin is the net result, ill grant, the brawn is, like the lotus 72 before her, a massivly superior car to the rest of the grid, but, a good car does not make a world champion, you need a lot of skills too. i mean, you could give a monkey the fastest, most superior , most easy to drive car ever made and hed shump it into the armco!(massa, say “ook”). go jensen, go brawn, and well, lets see what next season holds.
The superior strategy of Brawn GP, and the immaculate performance is makign this Tiffosi wonder if really the whole Ferrari hierarchy was responsible for MS Era Ferrari dominance or just Ross and Michael.
The big men of F1 are having a tough time with the school boys..great to look at..F1 is going through a well deserved change.. <3 it!! Go button..go vettel!!
I hate Button F1 is boring now as he is winning all the time. His immature behaviour and stupid voice make me cringe. Lewis all the way, just look at the f1 lap time board. Lewis is ahead of Button and he did it on a Wet and Oily track and you can’t argue with that. Mclaren need to get their car sorted and Buttons chances will be gone, but I do think its a little late now!
Anyone but button please Vettel Webber Kimi!!!!!!!!
LOL, Brawn just made the perfect move, with the investment into Honda.He was,hands down, one of the best engineers, Ferrari ever had(remember the Schuh-mach-era?).He had more time to develop, than the other teams. Bought some ultra-reliable McMerc engines,instead of bothering with KERS. This guy knows what is best, and now, he is having it all together.(and with a sponsor like Virgin.Orbit is the limit)
I still think, Hamilton is a superb driver,and i wonder what he would be able to achieve with this car.But i also say: Button deserves to win it,after all he went through with the Honda team,i really want him to make the “comeback of the year”.He has been in F-1 for a very long time now,and is a very communicative fellow, which helps developing a car.
unlike Raikkonen. And Hamilton is nowhere near his experience level. But very talented as a driver.
Its just a well-rounded package after all.
Oh shut up Pizzaboy. “Oh Lewis is faster around the Top Gear track so he’s better.”
Yeah, well who binned it like a no-talent idiot in qualifying at Monaco? Or drove into a BMW at Monaco?
Lewis is good when he has nobody in front of him. Put him down the field and he’s a nobody.
Once again, I hope Jenson wins every race. He is far more deserving of his success than Lewis who walked into a top car. Jenson has well and truly paid his dues over the last couple of years.
Finally, a DESERVING British driver wins the title. (Since neither Lewis nor Felipe deserved the title last year.)
And Jenson doesn’t lie to the stewards either.
And it’ll be GREAT to see Jenson win everything this year since then all the numpty whiners will bugger off.
Seriously, go watch NASCAR and leave F1 for those of us who appreciate actual skillful driving.
For the record I am not actually a big fan of Jenson. I am, however, a fan of sporting events that are almost movie like in their storytelling. Two weeks before the season Jenson didn’t have a job. Now he’s only dropped 4 points from 7 races.
If you aren’t enjoying this, then you have no soul or appreciation for the actual skill involved in racing Formula One.
come on Fezza. they gotta lift the game like they usually do. winners this year, they are not. that’s not the script they write and then re-write them selves.
damn, who wish they placed a sizeable bet on Jenson Button winning the championship when it was announced Honda were quitting……think of the odds!
I don’t think Drood can complain about Hamilton walking into a top car and winning, what was he meant to do, turn it down and apply at Force India? It was Ron Dennis that asked him to drive for them, he obviously knew he had the talent to win races and very nearly won his first two championships.
Also he binned it at Monaco in a non-competitive car on the fastest lap on the track so far, to say he’s a nobody is utter tosh
Anyway, can’t wait for Silverstone and Hope Jenson gets that one. The crowds will be BIG
So if Brawn can’t put the funds and the effort into next years car, will Button stay. I think they were saying on the Saturday qualifying programme that he is now hot property in F1. Should he take the win this year and then head to a top team for a long contract before calling it a day?
I think Button is getting a big pay rise Bob 72 and I’d assume if Brawn wins the title they’ll hopefully get more sponsors so they can develop the car for 2010…
musicmanvin,
yes, you are correct.
I was actually going to put a tenner on Button being chamipon the day the Brawn was first tested. The odds were 1-100, I could have made £990, but couldn’t be bothered to get round to it. I feel like an idiot.
First & foremost – Go Brawn, Go Jenson
On the on-going debate about all good drivers should have a good car, I believe many team principle see it as a mistake – look what happened to Macca 2007, I know an interesting year with 3 or 4 potential champions, but the so-called dream team got smoked in the end. Its nice to fans if eventually that would happened, but the real rule in F1 is that there is a dominant team/driver. Its what I have been seeing in the past 10 years. Also let us not compare the 1980’s-1990’s F1 as the technology & talent has sky rocketed since.
Button fan since 2000
musicmanvin u have no idea…old fart u da man…. it doesnt matter bout the team within the team…old fart is right…the car is stil clearly focused and developed toward 1 driver….the number 1 driver in the team.i.e button.u hear every race his style just works with the car…y do u think!?
Well, Jenson deserves one great season after the 150-odd races he was in with 1 win. Go back and watch his interview on Top Gear a while back – a true gentleman and a pleasure to watch, big grin, gave as good as he got! Lewis…well, he was a great winner, but now he’s not at the top of the heap he has a tendency to whine. It’s hard not to read some new story blaming his car or his team or whatever. Anyone remember Jenson blaming his car? Only thing I ever see of him is him praising his team, his boss…he’s so modest, you’re hard pressed to find that in a F1 driver, especially one who’s doing so well for himself. And when was the last time you saw Lewis smile as genuinely as Jenson in an interview? Genuinely nice guy, we need someone like him to be a champion in ten races. Look at Schumacher, what a grumpy old sod, I hated him when he was racing purely because he had all the charm of a wet fish.
Button is not fastest racer, this is victory of Ross Brawn and his double diffusors
Jenson Button is a good f1 driver but I think this years championship is unfair in a way. First of all I blame the FIA for messing up the rules. They said that the new changes would help the smaller teams to catch up with the other teams but were are they? Toro Roso are stil crashing and Force India are only good when someone else is having a bad race. And then Brawn GP have another advatage. The car construction started in the middle of the 2008 season so the have got way futher in making the car because they were able to test it.