European Grand Prix: so who is going to win? Could it be Grosjean?

At quick call to Prof Brian Cox and an according working understanding of Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle might serve you better than reading this if you are looking for any kind of prediction as to what might happen around the harbour roads of Valencia this afternoon. Feel free to correct us Sunday Afternooners (or indeed James May), but we’re reckoning if Prof Heisenberg was certain he could predict Sebastian Vettel was going to win this afternoon, he’d put his money on Lewis Hamilton. Or something like that. So we’re going with Romain Grosjean, but we’ll come to that.

In Autosport magazine this week, Sky’s Mark Hughes, F1’s very own Professor of Engineering, Tactics and Predictive and Historical Analysis sat down with the results from this year and removed all the ‘uncertainties’.  Professor Hughes concluded that, without grid penalties, strategy and pit-stop screw-ups and so on the seven races this year would have been won by (in order); Jenson Button, Sergio Perez, Lewis Hamilton, Kimi Raikkonen, Hamilton again, Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton again.

So only the first race, Australia, and the last, in Canada, went as they should have done with the fastest car/driver combo across the race distance winning. Andrew Benson of the BBC and a former colleague of Hughes at Autosport crunched the same numbers and came up with; Button, Perez, Button, Vettel, Alonso, Alonso and Hamilton.

It’s an interesting way to spend a rainy morning waiting for things to kick off in Spain. To remind you, this year’s winners have been; Button, Alonso, Rosberg, Vettel, Maldonado, Webber and Hamilton and this afternoon… well, like we said we think Romain Grosjean is well overdue a first place to add to his third and second in what is proving to be an astonishing first proper season in F1.

This was supposed to be the season that was all about the six world champions; the ‘old’ generations of Lewis and Jenson, ‘Nando and the returning Kimi Raikkonen and Michael Schumacher. But when we fire up the Sunday Afternoon telly all we see is a new generation of drivers.

Yesterday afternoon, just moments before the end of Q1, the timesheets were headed by Pastor Maldonado, Grosjean and the Nicos Rosberg and Hulkenberg. We rather liked the look of that. Only Maldonado and Grosjean held on, but of the two it’s Grosjean we’re tipping.

Why? It’s three things. The Lotus E20 has been competitive, if a bit moody, all season. But it loves to race and it loves to race in the sunshine and the warmth. Tick. Then there’s Grosjean’s race in Canada. Quick and fighty but always kind on his tyres and clearly calm-headed and sticking to a strategy, happy as it were to wait for the race to come to him.

Lastly, it’s the simple fact that he can now do this; seven races ago in Australia he looked quick, but out of his depth at the front. He does no longer. His rate of ‘personal growth’ (yeah, we’re sorry for that…) is astonishing and its very momentum will bring results.

All the great drivers do something that makes us pay attention to their careers very early on. Prost’s points in his first race, Senna’s second place at Monaco, Schumacher’s astonishing qualifying in the Jordan at Spa. Grosjean has more than matched any of that. The boy’s a bit special. Enjoy.

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in this situation, vettel has won once beside hamilton on the front row, whilst lewis has also won once. doesn’t look like a mclaren circuit, so, whilst i’m supporting hamilton, i’ll also be supporting grosjean and raikkonen, hoping one of them will be the eighth different winner.

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grosjean looks the most likely to win at the moment,especially if the red bull starts chewing up its tyres quickly like spa 2011 just without the blisters

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It is funny one would even bother predicting results by taking out all the uncertainties. Isn’t that what not only racing but life was about and what makes it exciting? I am thankful for pit crew screw-ups and tire wear as they make this more than a simple calculation.

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It must be said that Eric Boullier, Vijay Mallya and Peter Sauber/ Monisha Katelborn deserve praise for giving the guys the oppertunity in the car, especially Boullier after Grosjean’s first attempt a F1, but he always said it was because he knew he was fast, and then Kimi…. showing he’s got Flavio Briatore’s eye for talent, without his ridiculous politics.

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yeah jinx him, go ahead :P
The race belongs to vettel. Unfortunately.

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¿When do you put Alonso in the Suzuki?, we want it badly

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New flash
Ferando is faster than you.
do not forget, age and treachy
will beat youth and inexperience.

Great race today, well done Schuy
hope he does not a penalty. Old Alonso
is crafty veterean.
deserved to win, this race unlucky Grosjean
better luck next time kid.

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@formuladude

Didn’t Vettel win Spa 2011 and Webber was on the podium (not sure about 1-2). Red Bull don’t seem to be any worse than Lotus, Ferrari, Sauber. Vettel is probably coping with his tyres the best although it’s hard to tell when he’s out front.

This is all kind of irrelevant now as the race is over but I imagine Newey will be asking some serious questions to Renault by now. He looked gutted after all the development work gone in to make Red Bull top again and just as it looks like it might have paid off, the electrics let you down.

I can only hope luck doesn’t favour Alonso for much longer or else the championship is his.

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Alonso did a super race. Except the position from Vettel, he won all the others overtaken. I can only hope that the luck favour Alonso… although I think he is the best driver on the track and doesn’t need much luck to win. He needs just to drive :)

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Michael Schumacher came third. His first podium since his comeback.

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TG/UK has some write-up prepared on their website usually a couple of minutes after the race has finished.. hhmmm could be something to do with Brit Hamilton’s unlucky incident with Maldonado and not able to secure 3rd position..

.. but then one of the best race incidents/accidents and lucky streak so far for this season.

Alonso deserved to win because he fought like a Top-A grade F1 pilot should. Great to see the cool and collected Raikkonen take 2nd and the surprised Herr Schumacher in 3rd. Good on Webber for fighting back and taking 4th place.

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i was just saying,chill dude,i remember praising him for it,christ.

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